Ask Giles and/or Alex Anything
-
Here's what Gemini has to say about the matter.
Japan Selvedge Denim: 10-Year Production Volume Trends
The overall trend has been a decrease in raw yardage but a significant increase in market value, as Japan shifted from "mass-premium" to "ultra-artisan" niche production.
Period Production Volume Trend Key Market Drivers 2016–2019 Peak Stability High global demand for "heritage" wear. Mills like Kaihara were running at near-maximum capacity for brands like Uniqlo and Levi's. 2020–2021 Sharp Decline (-30%) Pandemic lockdowns closed factories in Kojima and Ibara. Supply chain disruptions led to a massive backlog in shuttle loom parts. 2022–2024 The "Quality" Pivot Volume began to recover but stabilized at ~15% lower than 2016 levels. Mills shifted focus to "Small Batch/High Margin" fabrics (Natural Indigo, high-slub). 2025–2026 Niche Growth Currently, volume is steady. Demand from luxury houses (LVMH, Kering) has replaced some of the "mid-tier" volume lost to Chinese mills.
Why Volume Isn't Increasing
You might wonder why Japan doesn't just make more. The "bottleneck" is the Shuttle Loom:
- Speed: A vintage Toyoda G9 shuttle loom is roughly 5x slower than a modern projectile loom.
- Scarcity: There are a finite number of these machines left in the world. Japan owns the largest "fleet," but they require constant, specialized maintenance by aging mechanics.
- Width: Selvedge denim is typically woven at 29-31 inches wide, compared to 60+ inches for modern denim, meaning you need twice the yardage for a single pair of jeans.
Summary
Over the last 10 years, Japan has effectively "de-bulked." They are making slightly less fabric than they were in 2016, but the fabric they are making is more complex, heavier, and significantly more expensive.
-
The irony with Vidalia Mills is it seemed like a big competitor for them in the boutique denim space was just all the deadstock made in USA Cone Mill still lingering around rag houses (which really shows to Giles point the vast disrepency in size orders from Levis v the smaller companies)
Vidalia needed some of the big boys to buy their product to make their business sustainable. Now the small brands utilizing made in USA denim will have the last of the cone mill, and last of vidalia mills to pick from before deciding to take a chance on Vernon.What I am getting at, I think, is it would be great if Levis and Lee etc replaced some of their Japanese selvedge inventory with the forthcoming Made in USA stock (they spend a lot on marketing, maybe they can make it cool again). Maybe a pipe dream but this would help to prop up and keep that American industry viable and sustainable and help preserve the smaller Japanese brands like IH by freeing up and returning the Japanese capacity to them.
-
@jordanscollected I’ve driven by that denim mall a few times. My wife grew up in the Trion area, small world haha. Thanks for the link.
-
@nytimes_gaiden Levi's missed the bus on this one. They could have hired Sydney Sweeney for their ads saying "Sydney's genes/jeans were made in the USA", "Sydney has good sustainable jeans".
-
@Giles It seems one major factor in the production issues is the Toyoda looms and other mid century machinery. Is there any chance that new looms and other machines needed might ever come into this space and be able to do the job that the "vintage" machines can do with increased mechanical efficiency? Is this a matter of historical accuracy, or just the niche market being too small for a company to want to design and produce a modern loom capable of making selvedge denim...
