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American Football (NFL)

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  • M
    Matt
    見習いボス
    Joined: 4 Oct 2011

    I don’t watch anymore after the Ravens are out.  My eyes are looking to the draft.  We did poorly enough to merit a decent position as well as a relatively easy 2022 season. If we can manage to bring back some free agents and get the rest of our starters off IR then there is cause to be optimistic.

    last edited by 17 Jan 2022, 19:36 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
    • O
      Oaktavia
      見習いボス
      Joined: 12 Jun 2019

      @Alex:

      @Matt:

      If your going to trash talk this is the place to do it. The Bengals win so infrequently it would be silly not to celebrate their fleeting success, as short lived as it may be.  😛

      Haha, yeah - for whatever reason I picked the Bengals to follow when I started watching football 16 or so years ago so am quite aware of how hard they are to support..

      Somehow it's much less annoying to have a Bengals fan overseas  😃 but you can always convert to the Ravens flock.

      IG: electricindigowizard

      "Possibly splitting hairs, but I consider @Oaktavia to be the beardy, dank High Magus of this denim game…" @neph93

      WTB: IHJ-72- XL/XXL

      last edited by 17 Jan 2022, 19:53 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
      • M
        mclaincausey
        見習いボス
        Joined: 12 Apr 2013

        @Alex:

        @Matt:

        If your going to trash talk this is the place to do it. The Bengals win so infrequently it would be silly not to celebrate their fleeting success, as short lived as it may be.  😛

        Haha, yeah - for whatever reason I picked the Bengals to follow when I started watching football 16 or so years ago so am quite aware of how hard they are to support..

        Overseas Gooner here. I feel your pain.

        Think it, be it.

        last edited by 17 Jan 2022, 22:43 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
        • M
          mclaincausey
          見習いボス
          Joined: 12 Apr 2013

          BTW I saw a lot of him in college and if the Bengals can keep Burrow healthy and build a good team around him, he’s a generational talent and could flip the script for the franchise @Alex

          Think it, be it.

          last edited by 18 Jan 2022, 01:13 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
          • M
            Maynard Friedman
            Joined: 3 Jan 2013

            @mclaincausey:

            BTW I saw a lot of him in college and if the Bengals can keep Burrow healthy and build a good team around him, he’s a generational talent and could flip the script for the franchise @Alex

            But I thought Trevor Lawrence was the generational talent?!  😃

            I chose the 49ers many years ago so am pleased to see them in the last 8, although only just after a tense finish against the Cowboys…

            I didn’t see the Rams game yesterday but have been most impressed with the Buccs and especially the Bills. Roll on the weekend.

            last edited by 18 Jan 2022, 11:28 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
            • M
              mclaincausey
              見習いボス
              Joined: 12 Apr 2013

              Didja? Have you not studied the recent past of dual-threat QBs in the NFL? Lamar Jackson is more of an exception than a rule.

              That said, he still could be. Hard to tell with the dumpster fire he was stuck in.

              Think it, be it.

              last edited by 18 Jan 2022, 12:33 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
              • S
                steelworker
                見習いボス
                Joined: 16 Apr 2014

                Bills-Pats game-I'd say the wizard of Foxboro lives in Tampa  😶
                Buffalo looking awful good

                Those are my principles, and if you don't like them…
                Well, I have others.

                last edited by 18 Jan 2022, 12:39 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                • J
                  Jett129
                  見習いボス
                  Joined: 17 Aug 2011

                  I watched every game this weekend,and was most impressed by Buffalo. Bills/Chiefs might be better than the Super Bowl.

                  last edited by 18 Jan 2022, 12:43 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                  • M
                    mclaincausey
                    見習いボス
                    Joined: 12 Apr 2013

                    @steelworker:

                    Bills-Pats game-I'd say the wizard of Foxboro lives in Tampa  😶
                    Buffalo looking awful good

                    When the Pats won 11 games mostly with Matt Cassel I thought Brady benefitted from a system. It’s become clear the system benefitted from him.

                    Buffalo looks great and I’d love for them to finally overcome their SB demons. But they have to get through KC first.

                    Think it, be it.

                    last edited by 18 Jan 2022, 12:55 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                    • M
                      Maynard Friedman
                      Joined: 3 Jan 2013

                      If Mahomes and Allen are both on song on Sunday, this could be one hell of a game.

                      last edited by 18 Jan 2022, 13:42 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                      • F
                        Filthy2123ozjunkie
                        見習いボスー
                        Joined: 21 Jan 2013

                        @Matt:

                        Easy come , easy go…

                        Good riddance. Although the QBs they have waiting in the wings are even more mediocre.

                        @Maynard:

                        If Mahomes and Allen are both on song on Sunday, this could be one hell of a game.

                        Mahomes was dominant over the Steelers. But I think Buffalo is going to stomp them. I hope Buffalo goes all the way this year.

                        last edited by 19 Jan 2022, 13:55 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                        • S
                          steelworker
                          見習いボス
                          Joined: 16 Apr 2014

                          if they can get by KC. As @Jett129 said this match might be better than SB

                          Those are my principles, and if you don't like them…
                          Well, I have others.

                          last edited by 19 Jan 2022, 13:58 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                          • M
                            mclaincausey
                            見習いボス
                            Joined: 12 Apr 2013

                            High-flying offense versus dominant defense… Not to discount that both teams play both ways well. The Chiefs will want to falsify the "defense wins championships" trope (which is not backed up by statistics--offense, too, wins championships). And the Bills will want to exorcise their demons, but they have to get to the Super Bowl to do that. To be 0-4 in such a tight timeframe had to have been excruciating for them.

                            Think it, be it.

                            last edited by 19 Jan 2022, 15:00 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                            • J
                              Jett129
                              見習いボス
                              Joined: 17 Aug 2011

                              I Googled it and when the #1 offense has played the #1 defense in the Super Bowl…The #1 Defense has won 7 out of 8 times.

                              last edited by 19 Jan 2022, 15:39 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                              • M
                                mclaincausey
                                見習いボス
                                Joined: 12 Apr 2013

                                Yeah, but if you dig a little deeper you get a different answer–that offense and defense are nearly equally weighted in the NFL and many other sports. This is discussed in the book Scorecasting, which is kind of like "Freakonomics for sports". Granted it is a bit aged now, but they make a compelling case.

                                Here's an excerpt about it. The formatting made my eyes bleed so I am pasting here:

                                Take a look at the NFL’s “total defense” metric, and you could be forgiven for thinking you’d walked into a funhouse mirror. The team with the worst defense during the regular season was….the Green Bay Packers, who also happened to have the best record. Ranked 31st, the New England Patriots had the second-worst defense. The Patriots, of course, will represent the AFC in Super Bowl XLVI. Their opponents, the New York Giants, finished 27th in total defense. All three teams—the 15-1 Packers and the two Super Bowl participants—ranked lower than the Indianapolis Colts, the sad sack team that had the league’s worst record.

                                Come again?

                                Saving an indictment of the “total defense” statistic for another time, these rankings aren’t perhaps so incongruous after all. Defense wins championships. Coaches of all levels and sports have said so for years. This isn’t even a locker room cliché. It’s ossified into one of the seminal tenets of team sports.

                                Except that it isn’t necessarily so. What we found: when it comes to winning championships—or winning in general, for that matter—defense and offense carry uncannily similar weight. Among the 45 NFL Super Bowls, the better defensive team, measured by points allowed that season, has won 29 times. The better offensive team has won 25 times. It’s a slight edge to defense, but it’s a pretty close call, and not different from random chance. The Super Bowl champ has been a top-five defensive team during the regular season on 28 occasions. How many times was the Super Bowl champ ranked among the top five in offense? 28.

                                But we’re talking about only 45 games, so let’s broaden the sample size. There have been 407 NFL playoff games held over the last 44 seasons. The better defensive teams have won 58 percent of the time. The better offensive teams have won 62 percent of the time. Slight edge to the offense, but, again, pretty even. (Sometimes the winning team is better both offensively and defensively, which explains why the total exceeds 100 percent.)

                                Collectively, teams with a top-five defense have won 180 playoff games. Teams with a top-five offense have won 184 games. Accounting for almost 10,000 regular season games, the better defensive team has won 66.5 percent of the time compared to 67.4 percent of the time for the better offensive team. Again, a negligible difference.

                                What happens when the best offenses line up against the best defenses, when, say, if the 2006 Indianapolis Colts had had to face the 2000 Baltimore Ravens? It turns out that 27 Super Bowls have pitted a top-five offense against a top-five defense. The best offensive team won 13 and the best defensive team 14. Another virtual stalemate.

                                Same, incidentally, in other sports. Of the 65 NBA championships from 1947 to 2010, the league’s best defensive teams during the regular season have won nine titles, while the best offensive teams have won seven. In the playoffs, the better defensive teams win 54.4 percent of the time, while the better offensive teams win 54.7 percent of the time—almost dead even. And among 50,000 or so regular season games, the better defensive teams win no more often than the better offensive teams. We see the same results in the NHL. There’s no greater concentration of Stanley Cups, playoff wins, or regular season victories among the teams playing the best defense (or defence) than among those playing the best offense.

                                If defense is no more critical than offense is, why do all coaches worth their polyester shorts extol its singular importance? Well, no one needs to talk up the virtues of scoring. No one needs to create incentives for players to shoot more jump shots or score more touchdowns. There’s a reason why fans exhort “De-Fense, De-Fense!” not “Off-ense, Off-ense!” Offense is fun. Offense is glamorous. Defense? It’s often less fun and, certainly, less glamorous, less glorified. Who gets the endorsements, the scorers or the defensive stoppers? And it’s not just sports. Think about war movies. The heroes, inevitably, are conquerors of territory, not defenders of territory. Acquiring something is inherently sexier than simply maintaining it.

                                "We suspect that if sports were structured differently, defense might be perceived differently. Imagine if every game started not at 0-0 but with a score of, say, 25-25, and teams could have points deducted from that total." -Co-Authors, "Scorecasting", Tobias J. Moskowitz & L. Jon Wertheim

                                But we submit that there is something else at play. The fear of loss is a huge motivator, both in life and in sports. Psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky are credited with recognizing this phenomenon, which they called “loss aversion.” Distilled to its essence: we often tend to prefer avoiding losses even at the expense of acquiring gains. For most of us, the pain of losing $1 is far more intense and powerful than the pleasure of winning $1.

                                In an oft-cited psychology experiment, subjects are offered two gambles with identical payoffs, but framed differently. In the first gamble, a coin is flipped and if it lands heads you get $100; if tails, you get nothing. In the second gamble you are given $100 first and then flip the coin; if the coin lands heads you owe nothing; if it’s tails, you pay back the $100. Subjects dislike the second experiment much more than the first even though the actual gains and losses are identical

                                What about football? On offense, athletes seek a gain. They’re looking to score, to augment a total, to change the numbers on the scoreboard. On defense, athletes are simply trying to prevent points, to preserve the score and keep it from changing. On defense, the strong motivating forces of loss aversion aren’t really being activated. Nothing is at risk of being taken away or reduced.

                                We suspect that if sports were structured differently, defense might be perceived differently. Imagine if every game started not at 0-0 but with a score of, say, 25-25, and teams could have points deducted from that total. It stands to reason that the principles of loss aversion might kick in and inspire better defense.

                                But until then, defense is no more important than offense. If you’re prognosticating the Super Bowl winner, there are certainly better metrics than simply siding with the better defensive team. It’s not defense that wins championships. In virtually every sport, you need either a stellar offense or a stellar defense. And having both is even better.

                                Tobias J. Moskowitz, University of Chicago financial economist is co-author along with L. Jon Wertheim of “Scorecasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports Are Played and Games Are Won.”

                                Think it, be it.

                                last edited by 19 Jan 2022, 15:47 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                • M
                                  Matt
                                  見習いボス
                                  Joined: 4 Oct 2011

                                  I’ve always believed that it takes a good team to get into the playoffs.  It takes a lucky team to win.

                                  last edited by 19 Jan 2022, 16:13 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                  • M
                                    Maynard Friedman
                                    Joined: 3 Jan 2013

                                    Winning teams are often the luckiest.

                                    last edited by 19 Jan 2022, 16:56 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                    • J
                                      Jett129
                                      見習いボス
                                      Joined: 17 Aug 2011

                                      @Alex CONGRATULATIONS!!! What a game! Super happy for you. They totally deserved it. Right about now you have to have an XHS=Xtra Hvy Smile.

                                      last edited by 23 Jan 2022, 00:54 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                      • A
                                        Alex
                                        IHUK Crew
                                        Joined: 28 Sept 2009

                                        @Jett129 thank you! Was a pretty fun game, but I am nervous about how the Tennessee pass rush got through our line so efficiently. Will certainly be the weak spot from now on. Either way, Bills or Chiefs, the AFC Championship has  pretty epic downfield pass potential, so very much looking forward to watching that in NYC next weekend

                                        last edited by 23 Jan 2022, 10:41 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                        • O
                                          Oaktavia
                                          見習いボス
                                          Joined: 12 Jun 2019

                                          Glad they knocked TN out. Screw those guys.

                                          IG: electricindigowizard

                                          "Possibly splitting hairs, but I consider @Oaktavia to be the beardy, dank High Magus of this denim game…" @neph93

                                          WTB: IHJ-72- XL/XXL

                                          last edited by 23 Jan 2022, 23:42 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
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