Coronavirus (Covid-19) Discussion
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Just got my IH t-shirts and the UPS guy signed for me and stayed >1m away from me.
I believe we'll only know how well each country has done when we're able to compare # COVID deaths-per-million. Even then, it will be dirty because some ascribing a death to COVID isn't that easy and because different countries have completely different population density. Still, it seems that S. Korea has done very, very well. On the other hand, I'm not convinced US, UK, France, Italy, and Spain will look that different.
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Update today from our local (large) acute hospital, capacity has dropped from 50% to 42%. Only 21% of admissions are ICU covid 19.
Interestingly there has been a 20% increase in admissions due to road traffic accidents. People are getting restless.
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@neph93 I can only speak for the East Anglia and South East Essex areas, but national data outside of the large city epicentres report similar things.
Reporting is generally from the large city hospitals. I understand that this is where the greatest risk and impact are, but the majority of people in the UK live in provincial towns, not the cities.
Essex has a population of 1.5 million, so significantly less than Greater London. Obviously the population there are at greater risks.
UK covid 19 'related' deaths are at just under 20,000 as of 22 April. Apparently that hasn't counted care home deaths, when in actual fact it does, there is just a 5 day approx delay in reporting.
I am currently writing deprivation of liberty guidance for local care homes, and need to be very objective. I don't tske the current situation lightly, but data is being reported irresponsibly either a) because the press don't quite understand the picture on the ground, or b) there is intent in doing so
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Unfortunately for the residents of the state of Georgia they are a day away from being part of an experiment in what happens when you re-open business/get on with daily life much too soon. The state is effectively going back to business as usual starting tomorrow with restaurants and bars opening by Monday. Highly doubt the results will be pretty.
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I wonder if many businesses and residents are going to go back to “normal” in Georgia, though? It’s all well and good for them to give people permission to get back out there, but it means nothing if almost everyone still stays home. I’m hoping that these early adopter places (of whom my state of N.C. is a neighbor) will show some common sense even if their governments are trying to experiment on them. And for those idiots that are hell-bent on endangering themselves and others, I hope the damage they do is limited mostly to each other.
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This article is worth reading. Fwiw, even without mass testing I believe large swaths of the world population have already been infected, especially with everyone in the medical community agreeing how contagious covid 19 is. This goes back to the USC and Stanford study about infection rates. If local governments eventually get up and running with mass testing I wouldn’t be surprised if most people test positive. We’re already seeing the virus peak in certain cities, so it’s possible these places have achieved herd immunity.
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General points regarding the content of this thread that all who use it should consider:
There is quite a lot of speculation going on on this thread at times. Some of it is based on facts, some of it on hearsay, some of it on sources both solid and dubious. At the start of all this, we asked for people not to do that, for the obvious reason that it could be unhelpful to peoples understanding of the situation and contribute to the spread of false information.
Speculation and repeating hearsay is not an uncommon thing to do at a time like this. Wishful thinking or anxious negativity are also natural responses to an often distressing local and global situation. I would ask everyone to keep their discussion of the topic to known, verifiable facts. If you speculate please be clear that you are doing so and on which basis. Try not to let wishful thinking, nor anxiety colour comments. Please rely only on the best scientific, governmental or journalistic sources. It will improve the quality of debate and help everyones understanding of the situation, while also helping to quell the anxiety I'm sure many of us feel at times.
Thanks for reading.
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@neph93 I completely agree. Given the more lighthearted threads such as 'how are you self isolating today' I would rather this particular thread be disabled. I do value the ability for forum members to share their global experiences of covid-19 measures in their respective countries.
I'm not required to sign the official secrets act agreement, but I have friends who have. I am very very careful not to repeat what they have told me here.
I can speak about local, regional, and in some instances nationally as my work, and my wife's work give us access to high level information. I try not to be subjective, speculative, or misleading. That can appear counterintuitive to some though as what is generally reported by the press is either a few days behind the discussions we have with government agencies, or simply speculative.
I also have to be mindful of professional conduct as I am required to register with a professional regulator, as no doubt you are.
It can be very frustrating for key workers who have access to different information than the rest of the general public when we hear the wider debate.
As a final note, I would say that the intelligence generally exhibited by IH forum members is higher than the general populace, which makes this a safer, more stimulating place to have these debates. Maybe it's because we are all obsessive gals and guys that have a passion for a deeper level of knowledge and understanding of the things we enjoy.
Keep well folks, and keep your spirits up. People need you.
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So you mean quoting the POTUS when he said injecting yourself with disinfectant may kill COVID is maybe not a good idea?*
*Yes he said that. No you should not do that.
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So you mean quoting the POTUS when he said injecting yourself with disinfectant may kill COVID is maybe not a good idea?*
*Yes he said that. No you should not do that.
When I wrote the bit about relying on governmental sources I was careful to qualify that with the word «best». That may have been a result of some comments made by certain prominent world leaders recently.
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I can speak about local, regional, and in some instances nationally as my work, and my wife's work give us access to high level information. I try not to be subjective, speculative, or misleading. That can appear counterintuitive to some though as what is generally reported by the press is either a few days behind the discussions we have with government agencies, or simply speculative.
If we are honest with ourselves, a massive amount of what is going on in the world is based on speculation. There is not a verified vaccine and from a country, state, city, business, or individual family standpoint no one truly knows when it is safe to loosen restrictions, re-open, or begin moving back to normal life.
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So you mean quoting the POTUS when he said injecting yourself with disinfectant may kill COVID is maybe not a good idea?*
*Yes he said that. No you should not do that.
When I wrote the bit about relying on governmental sources I was careful to qualify that with the word «best». That may have been a result of some comments made by certain prominent world leaders recently.
I think the safe bet is to go straight to the most legitimate science based sources (WHO, CDC, Etc.) and avoid taking advice from secondary talking heads in the government.
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I'm not required to sign the official secrets act agreement, but I have friends who have. I am very very careful not to repeat what they have told me here.
So they're in clear breach…....
No. They would NOT give me information that would risk national security, but do give me general information about numbers of deaths or hospital admissions etc. I am never given information about repatriated service personnel for example.
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I can speak about local, regional, and in some instances nationally as my work, and my wife's work give us access to high level information. I try not to be subjective, speculative, or misleading. That can appear counterintuitive to some though as what is generally reported by the press is either a few days behind the discussions we have with government agencies, or simply speculative.
If we are honest with ourselves, a massive amount of what is going on in the world is based on speculation. There is not a verified vaccine and from a country, state, city, business, or individual family standpoint no one truly knows when it is safe to loosen restrictions, re-open, or begin moving back to normal life.
A couple of examples from practice. Practice informs the science and statistics. What I mean by that is that we (professionals in the field) are given data by hospitals, local authority registry officers, care homes etc directly. This information is then fed back regionally, nationally, and then internationally. There are delays at each stage of this process. The generally accepted delay is 5 days.
A couple of days ago I reported a marked increase of people presenting at A&Es having had RTAs. Tonight on the UK government briefing Grant Shapps confirmed that road travel has increased in the UK. Now yes, any idiot could guess and speculate about that risk, but it is exactly that, speculation and guesswork, unless you have 1st hand access to the source data.
I don't comment on the complexities of clothing manufacturer, farming, the construction industry etc etc because I have no clue about those businesses. I could Google and Wikipedia information and bullshit my way through, sounding like I know enough to fake it, but I don't.
My business is health and social care, so I choose to comment. Maybe I should stop.
