Coronavirus (Covid-19) Discussion
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This article is worth reading. Fwiw, even without mass testing I believe large swaths of the world population have already been infected, especially with everyone in the medical community agreeing how contagious covid 19 is. This goes back to the USC and Stanford study about infection rates. If local governments eventually get up and running with mass testing I wouldn’t be surprised if most people test positive. We’re already seeing the virus peak in certain cities, so it’s possible these places have achieved herd immunity.
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General points regarding the content of this thread that all who use it should consider:
There is quite a lot of speculation going on on this thread at times. Some of it is based on facts, some of it on hearsay, some of it on sources both solid and dubious. At the start of all this, we asked for people not to do that, for the obvious reason that it could be unhelpful to peoples understanding of the situation and contribute to the spread of false information.
Speculation and repeating hearsay is not an uncommon thing to do at a time like this. Wishful thinking or anxious negativity are also natural responses to an often distressing local and global situation. I would ask everyone to keep their discussion of the topic to known, verifiable facts. If you speculate please be clear that you are doing so and on which basis. Try not to let wishful thinking, nor anxiety colour comments. Please rely only on the best scientific, governmental or journalistic sources. It will improve the quality of debate and help everyones understanding of the situation, while also helping to quell the anxiety I'm sure many of us feel at times.
Thanks for reading.
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@neph93 I completely agree. Given the more lighthearted threads such as 'how are you self isolating today' I would rather this particular thread be disabled. I do value the ability for forum members to share their global experiences of covid-19 measures in their respective countries.
I'm not required to sign the official secrets act agreement, but I have friends who have. I am very very careful not to repeat what they have told me here.
I can speak about local, regional, and in some instances nationally as my work, and my wife's work give us access to high level information. I try not to be subjective, speculative, or misleading. That can appear counterintuitive to some though as what is generally reported by the press is either a few days behind the discussions we have with government agencies, or simply speculative.
I also have to be mindful of professional conduct as I am required to register with a professional regulator, as no doubt you are.
It can be very frustrating for key workers who have access to different information than the rest of the general public when we hear the wider debate.
As a final note, I would say that the intelligence generally exhibited by IH forum members is higher than the general populace, which makes this a safer, more stimulating place to have these debates. Maybe it's because we are all obsessive gals and guys that have a passion for a deeper level of knowledge and understanding of the things we enjoy.
Keep well folks, and keep your spirits up. People need you.
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So you mean quoting the POTUS when he said injecting yourself with disinfectant may kill COVID is maybe not a good idea?*
*Yes he said that. No you should not do that.
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So you mean quoting the POTUS when he said injecting yourself with disinfectant may kill COVID is maybe not a good idea?*
*Yes he said that. No you should not do that.
When I wrote the bit about relying on governmental sources I was careful to qualify that with the word «best». That may have been a result of some comments made by certain prominent world leaders recently.
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I can speak about local, regional, and in some instances nationally as my work, and my wife's work give us access to high level information. I try not to be subjective, speculative, or misleading. That can appear counterintuitive to some though as what is generally reported by the press is either a few days behind the discussions we have with government agencies, or simply speculative.
If we are honest with ourselves, a massive amount of what is going on in the world is based on speculation. There is not a verified vaccine and from a country, state, city, business, or individual family standpoint no one truly knows when it is safe to loosen restrictions, re-open, or begin moving back to normal life.
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So you mean quoting the POTUS when he said injecting yourself with disinfectant may kill COVID is maybe not a good idea?*
*Yes he said that. No you should not do that.
When I wrote the bit about relying on governmental sources I was careful to qualify that with the word «best». That may have been a result of some comments made by certain prominent world leaders recently.
I think the safe bet is to go straight to the most legitimate science based sources (WHO, CDC, Etc.) and avoid taking advice from secondary talking heads in the government.
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I'm not required to sign the official secrets act agreement, but I have friends who have. I am very very careful not to repeat what they have told me here.
So they're in clear breach…....
No. They would NOT give me information that would risk national security, but do give me general information about numbers of deaths or hospital admissions etc. I am never given information about repatriated service personnel for example.
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I can speak about local, regional, and in some instances nationally as my work, and my wife's work give us access to high level information. I try not to be subjective, speculative, or misleading. That can appear counterintuitive to some though as what is generally reported by the press is either a few days behind the discussions we have with government agencies, or simply speculative.
If we are honest with ourselves, a massive amount of what is going on in the world is based on speculation. There is not a verified vaccine and from a country, state, city, business, or individual family standpoint no one truly knows when it is safe to loosen restrictions, re-open, or begin moving back to normal life.
A couple of examples from practice. Practice informs the science and statistics. What I mean by that is that we (professionals in the field) are given data by hospitals, local authority registry officers, care homes etc directly. This information is then fed back regionally, nationally, and then internationally. There are delays at each stage of this process. The generally accepted delay is 5 days.
A couple of days ago I reported a marked increase of people presenting at A&Es having had RTAs. Tonight on the UK government briefing Grant Shapps confirmed that road travel has increased in the UK. Now yes, any idiot could guess and speculate about that risk, but it is exactly that, speculation and guesswork, unless you have 1st hand access to the source data.
I don't comment on the complexities of clothing manufacturer, farming, the construction industry etc etc because I have no clue about those businesses. I could Google and Wikipedia information and bullshit my way through, sounding like I know enough to fake it, but I don't.
My business is health and social care, so I choose to comment. Maybe I should stop.
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The more informed posting we have on the thread the better, so definitely do not stop posting.
The point I am getting at is even using source data there is still a fair amount of speculation which has to happen when making decisions. No one really knows what is going to happen when restrictions are loosened or when the best time to loosen those restrictions is. Of course we have to put faith in leadership that the decisions are being made with the most accurate and up to date information available but those decisions still have a degree of speculation.
Ex. The hospital my wife works at is converting surgical wards from COVID ICU's back to their intended purpose because the numbers both at the hospital and in the general area indicate it is safe to do so. Obviously this decision was made with the most up to date source data. However, they are still speculating that the worst of the pandemic is behind us and that there will not be a secondary surge in the near future.
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Another month or two without a haircut and the crop up top will look like a bird’s nest [emoji50] don’t think I want to try the shaved head approach
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So you mean quoting the POTUS when he said injecting yourself with disinfectant may kill COVID is maybe not a good idea?*
*Yes he said that. No you should not do that.
When I wrote the bit about relying on governmental sources I was careful to qualify that with the word «best». That may have been a result of some comments made by certain prominent world leaders recently.
One of these days, @neph93 I would love to sit with you in Gosport and have some drinks and another great discussion…..
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A couple of days ago I reported a marked increase of people presenting at A&Es having had RTAs. Tonight on the UK government briefing Grant Shapps confirmed that road travel has increased in the UK.
Fact:
Admiral Insurance (one of the UK's largest, if not the largest insurance companies) is giving £25 per car insurance policy refunds because of the reduced number of claims during the lock down. -
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A couple of days ago I reported a marked increase of people presenting at A&Es having had RTAs. Tonight on the UK government briefing Grant Shapps confirmed that road travel has increased in the UK.
Fact:
Admiral Insurance (one of the UK's largest, if not the largest insurance companies) is giving £25 per car insurance policy refunds because of the reduced number of claims during the lock down.@Giles There has been a huge reduction in the numbers of people driving. Obviously as a result per captia there will be less accidents than there were this time last year, so less insurance claims as a total for the population.
If you compare how many people are driving now, and what percentage of those driving are having accidents, it will be siginifacntly higher as a percentage than you might expect (our local A&E has reported a 21% increase in admissions due to rta as of 24.04.20).
There has been an increase in people driving over the past 2 weeks, and proportionally, of those driving, a higher percentage than would be expected are having accidents, mainly due to either speeding, or having drunk alcohol, or both.
If 6 million people drive, and 1% crash and make an insurance claim, that is 60, 000 claims.
If 1 million people drive and 2% crash and make an insurance claim, that is 20,000 claims.
The number of claims massively reduces, but the percentage of those drivers having accidents has doubled.
Not everyone that has had an accident needs hospital treatment. The fact that more people are presenting at A&Es suggests the accidents are more serious (apparently the most common are misjudging corners and ending up in a ditch or wall).
The affect on the insurance companies will be miniscule, but the affect on A&Es will be greater.
