Coronavirus (Covid-19) Discussion
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i personally feel that there's nothing to be worried about.
I'm curious whether you have read at least the 5mn read article I posted? I certainly hope I'm wrong and you're right, but the consequences of being wrong one way (being too prudent) vs the other way are very much not symmetrical.
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I worry about the folks in Italy. Not a good situation if you are old and you have some underlying medical conditions. Taiwan and Singapore are doing better. I think they prepared themselves way earlier than a lot of other nations. Maybe they are more strict with entry and exit points and perhaps more vigilant after SARs, H1N1. Call me a pessimist :(, I also worry about the future. It will be coming in waves, stronger and stronger each time.
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i personally feel that there's nothing to be worried about.
I'm curious whether you have read at least the 5mn read article I posted? I certainly hope I'm wrong and you're right, but the consequences of being wrong one way (being too prudent) vs the other way are very much not symmetrical.
I don’t think anyone is taking this situation lightly. I’m well aware of how dangerous Covid-19 poses to the population but my outlook is slightly less bleak given our past experiences with pandemics. There will be more deaths and more supply chain disruptions but panicking isn’t going to help me or anyone else for that matter. I’ll simply take the same precautions I usually do as recommended by the CDC.
The article below puts things into perspective, at least for me.
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@louisbosco speaks the truth regarding lessons learnt. There is reason to believe the experiences of SARS have left Taiwan, Singapore and other countries well prepared. Swift, decisive action worked. I’m more worried for the UK, USA and Japan who seem to be uncoordinated in their approach and relying on public discipline. That may work in Japan to degree, but won’t in other countries.
One scenario for Norway, developed by the authorities, looked at what would happen with zero restrictive measures. It suggested that 80% of the population would be infected withn half a year. Factoring in vectors of infection and total number of intensive care places they estimated a 4-6% mortality rate. That would mean around 200.000 deaths in a country of 5.2m over a six month period.
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I'm shocked that grocery delivery services would stop. They are the best options for now, by far.
From my understanding of trying to use them is that they are overwhelmed both in requests for deliveries and their supplies in terms of item stock. I'm confident they'll sort it out and I hope to use it, but right now with this initial shock, it's not working in my area. Literally since Wed my neck of the woods went from reading about it to dealing with it.
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I'm curious whether you have read at least the 5mn read article I posted? I certainly hope I'm wrong and you're right, but the consequences of being wrong one way (being too prudent) vs the other way are very much not symmetrical.
i did not but i just did. some things listed in the article makes sense but some of it are over the top too. unfortunately, there are many varying factors as to why deaths occur, with pre-existing conditons and age as a huge factor. these numbers without those factors included are not info and released to the public could and already has trigger widespread panic and fear.
everyone bangs on about the number infection and the death toll so much that nobody seems to mention that amount of people that have actually been cured or are in a stable condition. i won't be surprised if some people believe that once they get it, they'll be dead.
also, it's good to remember the panic and fear doesn't make you immune. stocking up and panic buying isn't going to make you safe even if you stayed home. the paranoia will probably kill you before the virus does.
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Yeah that wasn't a very rational comment was it.
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https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/health/coronavirus-facts-vs-panic#article
Take this with a grain of salt but it only reinforces what we already know, that most of those that have died were the elderly with underlying health issues. I think @louisbosco is correct by saying that people are acting as though they’re going to drop dead if they catch the virus, which is not the case.
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Anyone acting like they’re going to drop dead from it the moment they get it is a moron. The death rate and at risk groups have been clear for some time now.
But this is exactly the problem with a lot of the narrative around the disease. It is either «we’re all going to die», or «this is nothing». Both are far from the truth and seriously reductive.
In Iran, the site of the second major cluster, with an inept dictatorship, and a poor infrastructure, they are currently digging mass graves, and nobody knows the actual death toll. If they’re digging mass graves though, it’s bad.
Italy were unprepared and responded too slowly, and the death rate there is way higher than it needs to be as a result of overcrowded hospitals and an aging population. To keep the death rate at or around that of seasonal flu you need respirators. Otherwise people of all ages with or without underlying symptoms can die of pneumonia, especially when it can’t be treated with antibiotics. If countries don’t cut off infection vectors and flatten the curve of the epidemic, that will happen to them too.
The media and folks on the street really do need to stop overreacting and being hysterical. But they also need to stop writing this off as «just like the flu» and not a big deal. Both of those are emotional reactions that ignore the facts of the matter.
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@gaseousclay I’d consider this interview with a US expert on the matter as credible. Here he discusses the American response. Note what he says about comparisons to the flu:
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… most of those that have died were the elderly with underlying health issues
This will remain true as long as hospitals have capacity to spare. Once we hit top ICU / respirator occupancy (and that will come faster than we think), all bets are off.
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… most of those that have died were the elderly with underlying health issues
This will remain true as long as hospitals have capacity to spare. Once we hit top ICU / respirator occupancy (and that will come faster than we think), all bets are off.
Precisely that. Which is why Italy, a developed country with an excellent state run health service, a good standard of living and public health is where it is.
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@gaseousclay I’d consider this interview with a US expert on the matter as credible. Here he discusses the American response. Note what he says about comparisons to the flu:
I agree that the US response has been very poor. I’m still not clear how many testing kits there are available, if any.
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But this is exactly the problem with a lot of the narrative around the disease. It is either «we’re all going to die», or «this is nothing». Both are far from the truth and seriously reductive
The media and folks on the street really do need to stop overreacting and being hysterical. But they also need to stop writing this off as «just like the flu» and not a big deal. Both of those are emotional reactions that ignore the facts of the matter.
Exactly this.
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[I'm worried about Japan (no school closure so far and Olympics are still scheduled for this Summer).
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I'm in Japan and actually had dinner with a teacher last night. All elementary and above state schools closed weeks ago. For fee-paying schools, closure is currently optional.So wherever you got your information from, it's wrong. Which highlights the problem of there being loads of bullshit and disinformation flying around…
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Read this some where. Don't shoot me. If it is inappropriate, feel free to delete.
A pretty good description on the current grim situation."China's like that little kid at the playground who shat himself on top of the slide. Yes, he screwed up. He screwed up big. He tried to cover it up with a leaf, and when that failed he got his act together and cleaned up as best he could.
Now, the other Asian kids who went down the slide right after, they knew what's up. They had slid in shit before. They stopped using the slide and started cleaning themselves up.
The other little kids, though, even after they saw the shit at the top of the slide, the shit-covered Chinese kid sobbing as he cleaned up his mess with his own clothes, as well as the Asian kids frantically cleaning themselves at the bottom of the slide - they decided to go down the slide anyway.
The Iranian kid decided to go down face first. F. The European kids also had their go and are now shit smeared and crying at the bottom of the slide. Some other kids though, are running around the playground spreading shit to the swings and the see-saw.
At this point all the kids at the playground have some amount of shit on them. Some are sniffing around to see where the shit is on their clothes and are cleaning up appropriately. Others don't seem to care and continue to play.
The American kid though, is head-to-toes covered in shit and jumping around in the sandpit screaming, "It's just mud, guys!"
