Motor Sport
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I can’t remember if I shared it here but I built a model of F2 driver performance from 2019 to Brazil this year that controlled for differences in equipment, strategy, and pit performance to assess qualifying and racing performance. When I plotted that out it was Max on his own in both categories, then a cluster of elites including Charles, Lando, and Russell, with Lewis on the cusp of that tier because of the shit seasons he’s had of late. I don’t think he’s there anymore and Ferrari did their thing where they destroy WDC champs. Sadly, I think Merc did too because they wouldn’t listen to him about the car until it was too late and he’d resolved to leave. I really hate what the teams and to some degree probably age have done to him.
McLaren has built a great car but handicapped it with poor strategy. Red Bull’s car suffered for a while but they’ve always excelled otherwise. Ferrari is a dumpster fire.
I think Lewis is done and it’s really sad what F1 did to him screwing him out of a WDC, and teams did to him after that. The only way I see him getting back to form is if he sneaks over to A-M and Newey nails the 2026 regs. -
@mclaincausey You mentioned the model but if you shared it I must've missed it. It'd be cool to see the data. All that sounds very legit.
I still think McLaren just happened to get lucky with their windfall of car performance and the whole team still doesn't quite know what to do with it. I kinda doubt they'll be fortunate enough to carry it into 2026 regs.
It is sad to see the decline of Lewis, that's bound to happen when people stay in long enough, like any sport. Its rare to see people get out at their peak, and the drop is inevitable. I just wish he was having as much fun as Alonso seems to have in the late stages of his career.
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And before anyone asks--yes, I am currently unemployed and thus had time to put this together
Think it, be it.
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@mclaincausey dude thats crazy detailed. Good analysis! There were a few surprises in the data but generally it confirmed a lot of the preconceptions I had about most of these guys. I think you did a great job with your methodology, controls, and balancing factors, etc. The only way we could really know for sure is by giving them all spec'ed cars, but that would take the fun out of it!
My buddies have all talked about how it'd be cool to have all the F1 drivers do a race or two in identical cars each year for bragging rights, but I think the closest we'll get to that was the Lego race.
Thanks for sharing your research! -
@Bridger yeah that’s an artifact of the timeframe starting in 2020. If it went back further you’d see Kimi go way up.
I one day will update my retrieval script to get more data. Maybe like go back to 1980 or something. It would be really cool to compare the greats of past eras to Max. I think I’d need to adjust the model though to account for differences in the sport when going back that far.
No problem @WhiskeySandwich ; I agree that the model results mostly don’t surprise, which is one thing that makes me think it is solid. I didn’t try to fit the outcome in any way to what i think but it came out close.
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Here we go! Max seems to be enjoying himself (which is always a threat).
Nice of Yuki to give a parting gift to RB.
Oscar seems calmer than Norris despite the result in the post-quali interview, will make for an interesting race.
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100% @goosehd - I know I wouldn't have the minerals for what he needs to do tomorrow.
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Definitely - the way Max fought and won against Lewis in previous years is a testament to his mindset. He's a beast.
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Well done to Lando. Would have liked some jeopardy, but cool heads all around.
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Very pleased for Norris!
