Coronavirus (Covid-19) Discussion
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I can speak about local, regional, and in some instances nationally as my work, and my wife's work give us access to high level information. I try not to be subjective, speculative, or misleading. That can appear counterintuitive to some though as what is generally reported by the press is either a few days behind the discussions we have with government agencies, or simply speculative.
If we are honest with ourselves, a massive amount of what is going on in the world is based on speculation. There is not a verified vaccine and from a country, state, city, business, or individual family standpoint no one truly knows when it is safe to loosen restrictions, re-open, or begin moving back to normal life.
A couple of examples from practice. Practice informs the science and statistics. What I mean by that is that we (professionals in the field) are given data by hospitals, local authority registry officers, care homes etc directly. This information is then fed back regionally, nationally, and then internationally. There are delays at each stage of this process. The generally accepted delay is 5 days.
A couple of days ago I reported a marked increase of people presenting at A&Es having had RTAs. Tonight on the UK government briefing Grant Shapps confirmed that road travel has increased in the UK. Now yes, any idiot could guess and speculate about that risk, but it is exactly that, speculation and guesswork, unless you have 1st hand access to the source data.
I don't comment on the complexities of clothing manufacturer, farming, the construction industry etc etc because I have no clue about those businesses. I could Google and Wikipedia information and bullshit my way through, sounding like I know enough to fake it, but I don't.
My business is health and social care, so I choose to comment. Maybe I should stop.
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The more informed posting we have on the thread the better, so definitely do not stop posting.
The point I am getting at is even using source data there is still a fair amount of speculation which has to happen when making decisions. No one really knows what is going to happen when restrictions are loosened or when the best time to loosen those restrictions is. Of course we have to put faith in leadership that the decisions are being made with the most accurate and up to date information available but those decisions still have a degree of speculation.
Ex. The hospital my wife works at is converting surgical wards from COVID ICU's back to their intended purpose because the numbers both at the hospital and in the general area indicate it is safe to do so. Obviously this decision was made with the most up to date source data. However, they are still speculating that the worst of the pandemic is behind us and that there will not be a secondary surge in the near future.
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Another month or two without a haircut and the crop up top will look like a bird’s nest [emoji50] don’t think I want to try the shaved head approach
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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So you mean quoting the POTUS when he said injecting yourself with disinfectant may kill COVID is maybe not a good idea?*
*Yes he said that. No you should not do that.
When I wrote the bit about relying on governmental sources I was careful to qualify that with the word «best». That may have been a result of some comments made by certain prominent world leaders recently.
One of these days, @neph93 I would love to sit with you in Gosport and have some drinks and another great discussion…..
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A couple of days ago I reported a marked increase of people presenting at A&Es having had RTAs. Tonight on the UK government briefing Grant Shapps confirmed that road travel has increased in the UK.
Fact:
Admiral Insurance (one of the UK's largest, if not the largest insurance companies) is giving £25 per car insurance policy refunds because of the reduced number of claims during the lock down. -
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A couple of days ago I reported a marked increase of people presenting at A&Es having had RTAs. Tonight on the UK government briefing Grant Shapps confirmed that road travel has increased in the UK.
Fact:
Admiral Insurance (one of the UK's largest, if not the largest insurance companies) is giving £25 per car insurance policy refunds because of the reduced number of claims during the lock down.@Giles There has been a huge reduction in the numbers of people driving. Obviously as a result per captia there will be less accidents than there were this time last year, so less insurance claims as a total for the population.
If you compare how many people are driving now, and what percentage of those driving are having accidents, it will be siginifacntly higher as a percentage than you might expect (our local A&E has reported a 21% increase in admissions due to rta as of 24.04.20).
There has been an increase in people driving over the past 2 weeks, and proportionally, of those driving, a higher percentage than would be expected are having accidents, mainly due to either speeding, or having drunk alcohol, or both.
If 6 million people drive, and 1% crash and make an insurance claim, that is 60, 000 claims.
If 1 million people drive and 2% crash and make an insurance claim, that is 20,000 claims.
The number of claims massively reduces, but the percentage of those drivers having accidents has doubled.
Not everyone that has had an accident needs hospital treatment. The fact that more people are presenting at A&Es suggests the accidents are more serious (apparently the most common are misjudging corners and ending up in a ditch or wall).
The affect on the insurance companies will be miniscule, but the affect on A&Es will be greater.
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One of these days, @neph93 I would love to sit with you in Gosport and have some drinks and another great discussion…..
That would be wonderful. Alternatively, you and your better half are always welcome in the north of Norway. Here’s to looking forward to better times [emoji482]
Better half, other half depends on the day, but that would be great. If and when you would make it over here, ya'll are welcome here as well.
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If and when you would make it over here, ya'll are welcome here as well.
Thank you, sir. I’m coming over to the States at some point in the next few years. Been saying that for a while but it needs to happen. You can cross your fingers it isn’t «all» of us though. @Giles and @Madame Buttonfly can tell you what that is like [emoji1]
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It's no surprise spread is rampant in prisons but the positive rates, especially the asymptomatic rates, are incredibly high.
I'm wondering if prisoners are exposed to Corona type viruses on a regular basis similar to the theory around why young children are mostly not impacted due to being regularly exposed at daycare/school, and have thus built up a general immunity to it?
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A residential care home in our area had 10 residents all symptomatic of Covid 19, all where tested. Results came back from the NHS today. 2 tested positive for Covid 19, 8 were negative and diagnosed with influenza. Sadly one of the negative tested residents has died. Very sad.
This is a worrying new development..
I think people are getting very restless now too. It is very busy on the roads in South East Essex today, and I've spoken to people in Hertfordshire and Bedfordshire today and they report the same. My wife went to Waitrose after work today and said it was like a Saturday, with ALL tils open. That particular store is usually very quite, with no queuing outside at anytime. I wonder if this is some people's reaction to the predicted weather change in the UK this week?
This article from 2015 is interesting yet worrying…
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/lab-made-coronavirus-triggers-debate-34502And then there's this...
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/suppressed-science-indicates-covid-19-man-made-jenna-luche-thayer/
On Saturday morning BBC news had an interview with scientists that also entertained the theory that this strain of Novel Coronavirus is man-made.
What I find interesting is that all of these reports are from established professionals in their fields, not 'wack jobs' from the interweb.
This may also be symptomatic of our human need to find answers wherever we find them
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Got my RCFG mask today and I dig it. I’m not sure if they use a cotton jersey fabric for the inside but it’s nice and soft. The best part for me is the fit. It’s about as close to perfect as you can get. The other camo one I bought on Etsy kinda sucks because the elastic bands are too tight and makes it hard for the mask to stay fastened around my ears. The RCFG mask isn’t too tight or too loose and feels comfortable.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Sweet I just ordered a wabash one (of course
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Int'l shipping is such a mess right now. Here are the packages I've been waiting for:
Coming from: Sent date: Latest update
USA 17-Mar-20 Spent 1 month in JP (?) before being sent out on Apr-23.Out for delivery in France
USA 23-Mar-20 Departed Chicago March 29
USA 25-Mar-20 Departed NYC Apr-27
Australia 1-Apr-20 Departed Sydney on Apr-2. I worry is stuck in JP.
Japan 9-Apr-20 Departed Osaka Int'l on Apr-24
Lithuania 15-Apr-20 Departed Vilnius Int'l on Apr-18Pretty stressful as it is; would be much worse without tracking….
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We are seeing virtually no delays with UPS. Occasionally we get a one-day delay on imports from Japan, as UPS continues to route through China from Japan. Their reason: "delay caused by circumstances beyond the control of UPS" makes my blood boil, shipping it through China is completely within your control you fucking dorks….But as they have removed all service guarantee's during the crisis, they incur no fiscal penalty by being late.
We do ship to one retailer in The US via EMS. Cartons we shipped to him weeks ago, are still stuck in Osaka "because there are no planes flying to The USA" - which of course is bollocks.
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Yep, I've had the same experience: parcels shipped with integrated private carriers are doing OK (FedEx) or great (UPS & DHL). The national postal services seem to be a mess, at least for international shipments. Japan seems to be particularly disorganized, which I did not expect.
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Japan seems to be particularly disorganized, which I did not expect.
I did. It is a national characteristic (I did not make this up myself, but have had numerous discussions with my Japanese friends and colleagues). Obedience is instilled in them from a very young age and to follow process and not use initiative. When something mutates an established process, it takes a long time to adapt.
I once had a discussion with Sarina about why a particular Japanese colleague followed a process that was clearly wrong and we had to correct his work once a week. It took her 24 hours to think about it before she gave me an answer. "Japanese workers do what they are told to do by their boss, even if they know something is wrong they will continue to do it". She signed off with the immortal phrase, "and that is why mysterious things happen"
