Coronavirus (Covid-19) Discussion
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There's a somewhat pessimistic piece in The Guardian, which says that we're a long way from seeing the end of the Pandemic. The UK needs thirty times as many people to be infected (or a vaccine) to build herd immunity to a level we could consider it contained.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/16/number-coronavirus-pandemic
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Confuse and disorientate, that's the job of Governments and the media at the moment, and it infuriates me. I'd like to hear the experiences of other professionals working in fields affected by covid 19…health professionals, social care professionals, morticians and embalmers who are members of this forum.
In the East of England, the facts are that the pandemic is not what is being reported in the media. It just simply hasn't hit that hard. What is having an impact is the residual impact, the effects of preparing for mass treatment of covid 19, wards being cleared in anticipation, then being left 50% empty as the volume of admissions are not the same as in a few densely populated cities.
I don't know what to say anymore. My wife has high level conference calls with public health England and the DH&SC, and the information and strategies being implemented on the ground are NOT the same as those being reported on the news.
I could objectively and succinctly state what the UK Government's strategy is for the next 6 months, but there is no point, no one takes notice, and just defers to the media for their interpretation of what's happening.
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I don't/cant believe the numbers coming out of certain countries at all, and yes China Im looking at you.
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@neph93 it is both. The UK Government has a strategy that it has stuck to since pretty much week 1 of the covid 19 measures. I wasn't privvy to it at that time. The strategy is to drip feed information and restrictions at intervals, the fundamental basis of which is not to overwhelm the public psyche and risk non compliance or worse, public discourse. That would risk both public health and the Government's hold on public opinion and authority. Because the media isn't given this information (or if they are, it has been leaked) they have to scratch around and speak to the multitude of 'experts' out there, often conflicting information, and come up with there own theories about what's going on. The outcome - a very confused public that will willingly hand consent to the Government (basic transactional analysis - treat us like kids, we'll act like kids and look to mummy and daddy for answers).
Government know the time frames that they will be implementing over the next 18 months. They have pretty much published them in certain guidance. The interesting stuff to read is published by the office of national statistics (the ONS) they are purely data lead, and aren't afraid of holding the Government and NHS to account for misreporting.
Behavioural sciences have been integral to informing Government policy, as much as data from public health England. The Behavioural Insights Team https://www.bi.team provided advice to Government to enforce social change such as social distancing. Health and social care lobbied for social distancing to be called 'physical distancing' as the adopted term is a bit too 'quite weapons for silent wars' erode society-esque - physical distance is different to social distance - which is suggestive of changing how people relate to each other, not just their physical proximity.
Just as psychologists and behavioural scientists took advantage of the research undertaken during wartime, the same is happening now with covid 19.
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I don't know what to say anymore. My wife has high level conference calls with public health England and the DH&SC, and the information and strategies being implemented on the ground are NOT the same as those being reported on the news.
I’ve noticed this as well — the reaction doesn’t match the outcome and the hospitals here are not being overwhelmed. A lot of the data that came out in the past month or so has been greatly exaggerated, such as the one from the IHME. I understand that modeling is only as useful as the information you put in, but the IHME’s initial high death toll numbers included social distancing. They’ve since revised their numbers and they look closer to a bad flu season. I don’t know who to trust.
Locally, the majority of those that died from Covid 19 were in long term care facilities which I find infuriating. These are the most vulnerable and they weren’t protected.
Either way, I agree with [mention]DougNg [/mention]
about the possibility of civil unrest. The lockdowns, although necessary for the time being, are creating unintended consequences. If you’re on the bottom rung of the economic ladder and have no job, or the means to feed your family you’ll eventually resort to desperate measures. Protests are already happening across the country and it’s a powder keg waiting to go off.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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My best thoughts for my life during this time, and as usual is I follow the advise of a Medical doctor / professional / scientist, and not a Politician.
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@ROman what a great friend you are being. We will weather this storm, and relationships will be even stronger. You're a good person dude.
Thanks @Stuart.T it was a very humbling and emotional moment when I delivered the food to this family. Its definitely a typical story all over the world at the moment. They are a family that moved here from Ecuador about 7 years ago and put their heart and soul into this business. I also appreciate your insight into what occurs in the UK, as I see parallels over here. Thanks.
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Ordered this from Railcar Fine Goods. Any other denim companies making masks besides RC and Bravestar?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Hey all, I've just designed quickly a T-shirt, with 100% profits going to NHS Together Charities.
It is available pre-order (closes 27 April, shipping starts 5 May). Printed by a company called Everpress, on 100% Combed cotton, lots of sizes and a unisex tshirt. At the end of the pre-order, they start printing them and dispatch them out once done. Price is £20 + postage.
Appreciate if anyone can share the link.
https://everpress.com/stay-in-alive
Do what the Bee Gees tell you!
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cool shirt @Steve. good cause too.
For those curious, I received the Bravestar mask today, this is the $20 selvedge without the filter pocket.
it pulls on the ears a tad, but the elastic is not too tight that it's uncomfortable.
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My wife is an ARNP at one of the largest hospitals in Seattle (the original epicenter of the outbreak). The hospital she works at converted every ward to a COVID ICU in preparation for the peak. That peak came and went with beds being no more than 60% full. This is credit to the city's efforts to social distance and somewhat being ahead of the curve in terms of the government placing in effect a stay at home order. Of course you won't read about this in the news because it doesn't get clicks. If it bleeds it leads and that's why people in the states are reading about NY, Louisiana, etc.
However, that doesn't mean it is safe to just open everything back up. The U.S. in general is pathetically behind on testing availability and until testing becomes readily available, hopefully before a vaccine is finally created, the city and surrounding areas will have to stay mostly shut down.
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Ordered this from Railcar Fine Goods. Any other denim companies making masks besides RC and Bravestar?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Samurai and OkayDenimCo are two I can think of off the top of my head.
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That peak came and went with beds being no more than 60% full. This is credit to the city's efforts to social distance and somewhat being ahead of the curve in terms of the government placing in effect a stay at home order.
Coronavirus 0 - Seattle Freeze 1
Seriously, much credit should be given to the large tech companies, in Seattle and elsewhere, as well as many of the top universities, for quickly going into confinement. They quickly implemented study/work-at-home schemes and banned any business related travel, 1 or 2 weeks ahead of any action from local governments.
As a side note, good article if you have access to the NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/coronavirus-sequencing.html
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My wife is an ARNP at one of the largest hospitals in Seattle (the original epicenter of the outbreak). The hospital she works at converted every ward to a COVID ICU in preparation for the peak. That peak came and went with beds being no more than 60% full. This is credit to the city's efforts to social distance and somewhat being ahead of the curve in terms of the government placing in effect a stay at home order. Of course you won't read about this in the news because it doesn't get clicks. If it bleeds it leads and that's why people in the states are reading about NY, Louisiana, etc.
However, that doesn't mean it is safe to just open everything back up. The U.S. in general is pathetically behind on testing availability and until testing becomes readily available, hopefully before a vaccine is finally created, the city and surrounding areas will have to stay mostly shut down.
I agree on the pathetic response to testing. I’m assuming you’re familiar with two recent studies done by USC and Stanford where they ran tests on a small sample size of the population and determined that a large percentage of people who were asymptotic or had mild symptoms had covid 19. It still has to go through peer review but if they’re right then that means the fatality rate is much lower than we thought.
I don’t think it would be sustainable to close the economy for much longer. If it’s a gradual opening with social distancing/masks enforced then that might work. But it can’t just be business as usual. 22 million out of work in the US and rising, food banks reaching critical levels, etc. the protests are heating up and it’s just a matter of time before people snap and then all hell breaks loose.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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The UK Government finally announced what the profession have known for sometime, that social distancing measures will be in place for 12 months or more. The UK and the US are in an ideological war that some of our neighbours in Europe and Asia have not entertained, and have therefore done so much better jobs at making progress.
One of our local acute hospitals has approx 300 covid 19 patients, and approx 1500 general admissions. The A&E dept has started to see more people arriving as the result of stupid, alcohol induced, accidents at home. Way to go us Brits. So proud.
I overheard 2 acute hospital nurses talking at school drop off yesterday, one ssid 'the trust has to start telling the truth, it's not as bad as they're reporting, we've always been fine for PPE'.
The reported 'having to reuse' PPE was also a statement issued by South Essex hospital trusts, and was taken out of context by national press. The comments were an observation made when a senior manager was asked what they would do if they ran out of PPE. They responded 'we'd have to wash and reuse it', not that 'we are washing and reusing it'.
The long term health and economic affects of an extended lock down will far exceed the number of short term, but high number of deaths.
Care homes aren't reporting deaths correctly when they are reporting to The Care Quality Commission either, they are often notifying that residents have died of covid 19 before it has been confirmed.
I don't think that this misinformation is going to stop, or the measures eased or stopped until the press, business, and the public apply pressure on Government. This will devestate a whole generation, the socioeconomic impact is immense and will be felt long after we forget about covid 19.
