IH-888-XHS - 25oz Selvedge Denim Medium/High Rise Tapered Cut Jeans - Indigo

Giles

We dont drop the same number of sizes per run. We have bell curves of what has sold historically for all product types. As we get more and more historical data these curves get more and more accurate. These curves are based on what we sell directly. A few years ago, we made the mistake of basing the curves on total sales (retailer orders included), because many of our retailers don't take 28, 29, 35, 42 and 44 or XS, XXXL and XXXXL, our bell curves were massively inaccurate and we under-ordered these outlier sizes. It took about 18-24 months for that mistake to work its way through the cycle, but for months we were out of a lot of those sizes, it was painful and embarrassing.

We never get it completely right and never will, demand is fickle, complicated and unpredictable. One of my mantras is that being a successful retailer is not about how often you get it right, but how often you do not get it wrong.

Nirvana for us is to perfectly match supply with demand, we will keep on trying, and may even get better.

Karol

@Giles now that’s an answer that makes my day. It’s fucking awesome approach!
I’m thinking what can be the extra variable here. If there would be a way to incorporate a metric that would measure time between purchases per person. I’m thinking that new folks like me are fucking up the bell curves a bit because we are on this mission to replace our old stuff with what we love from IH and the initial spend will be abnormal compared to future when we will just get into the rhythm of replacing the old IH for new.

Giles

We are massively data-driven. I simply can't believe people who run businesses and don't know the answers to relatively basic questions about demand, costing, pricing etc etc etc. But at some point there is a trade-off between making and selling shit and accumulating and analysing data

Awesome approach @Giles that’s why i love IH

aaronblitz

@Heavy_blue Perfect that's the approach I was leaning towards. Gives me flexibility when I fluctuate on my weight depending on the season Looks like if I soak, it will drop up to 1" and then I will gain it back in the stretch by wearing them.

Salted Racer

@Giles I really enjoy it when you and the lads discuss the nuts and bolts behind the curtain so to speak. I can't think of any other brand that does that as openly. It's very interesting.

Zee Boo

@Giles your mantra about being succesful in retail fashion bussiness is a daily bread for all demand planners It is pretty easy to f**k things up with the size curves orders if you dont look into historical sales&stock data, but even this can be tricky if you dont combine it with actual trends. Great that you are on right tracks with planning!

Giles

Yeah, we've talked about it before but here we go again. We never actually knew what the demand for UHF's was, we always sold out so could not construct an accurate bell curve. Every year, we'd get a bit braver, but we'd still sell out - fast. So this year we decided to get our cojones out, order what we knew would be too many, and then we would have a decent idea of what demand really was. We ordered far too many and have lots left. We're not that worried because we think they will eventually sell, but the other dynamic at play is that having loads suppresses demand....

Zee Boo

Yes, it is the neverending story, constant change. As the other mantra says- Retail is detail.

Karol

@Giles I was thinking of commenting in the original thread about supply and demand and the UHF decision FW22, but since you used this example here I will add something I forgot to write there in the first place.
There should be no worry whatsoever about the shirts that are left. They are as awesome and well built as the others. All of them will go eventually and will forever be known as the famous drop of FW22 . Maybe some people will be finally able to save up and grab one.
And once more - It’s so good that IH is such a data driven company. As mentioned by @Zee-Boo there are so many variables at play here beyond supply and demand angle. The geopolitical situation hits everyone.