Motor Sport

[Giles]

Yeah. Have we got an "explanation" yet? Last lap was shaping up to be so good......

[louisbosco]

2021 doesn't want a last lap, screws Hamilton

2026 doesn't get a last lap, screws Hamilton again..

Brought to you by Fia

[WhiskeySandwich]

Bro, wtf was that with the Ferrari penalties?! They proper fucked Lewis and Charles got off free with a much bolder offense. F'real, Oscar should've backed out. IMO, neither should have gotten a penalty, That was super unbalanced and inconsistent.

Kimi is a monster, but at the same time, he's gotten incredible lucky with his particular Merc....which seems to be working pretty consistently only for him.

[Bridger]

There's the season so far

Team	Driver	Mechanical DNFs / DNSs	Races Affected	Primary Issue / Component
Aston Martin Aramco	Fernando Alonso	4	Australia, China, Canada, Spain	Battery shutdown, MGU-K failure, ICE vibration
Aston Martin Aramco	Lance Stroll	3	China, Japan, Spain	MGU-K overheat, power loom fault Lance Stroll
Mercedes AMG	George Russell	2	Canada, Belgium	Turbo boost shutdown, battery/electrical failure
Audi F1 Team	Nico Hülkenberg	2	Miami, Spain	Turbo lag / MGU-K failure, hydraulic leak
Audi F1 Team	Gabriel Bortoleto	2	Australia, China (DNS)	Electrical shut-off, starter mechanism fault
McLaren	Lando Norris	2	China (DNS), Canada	Electrical loom fault, MGU-K failure
McLaren	Oscar Piastri	2	Australia (DNS), China (DNS)	MGU-K harness fault, fuel pump system
Cadillac F1 Team	Sergio Pérez	2	Canada, Belgium	Gearbox failure, rear suspension drop
Cadillac F1 Team	Valtteri Bottas	2	Australia, Spain	Sensor cut-out, CE control unit fault
Scuderia Ferrari	Charles Leclerc	2	Monaco, Spain	Thermal MGU-K cutout, loss of hydraulic pressure
Red Bull Racing	Max Verstappen	2	China, Monaco	MGU-K deployment loss, energy store failure
Atlassian Williams	Alex Albon	2	China (DNS), Canada	Energy store failure, electrical shutdown
Mercedes AMG	Andrea Kimi Antonelli	1	Spain	Terminal electrical system shutdown
Racing Bulls / Haas / Alpine	Various Drivers	0	—	(No mechanical DNFs)

---

Total Mechanical DNFs / DNSs to Date: 28 across 10 rounds.

[Tago Mago]

I always thought the primary issue with Lance Stroll was Lance Stroll

[Bridger]

Thanks @Tago-Mago. Now corrected.

[Giles]

Way more accurate

[Bridger]

11 races to down, 11 races to come and this is what the bookies say...

Based on the current betting markets and bookmaker odds, the implied probability of each driver winning the 2026 World Drivers' Championship heavily favors the championship leader:

Andrea Kimi Antonelli: Around 80% to 82% implied probability (priced heavily as a -400 to -475 favorite).

Lewis Hamilton: Around 11% to 12% implied probability (priced roughly between +600 to +800).

Let's hope there is more drama that that.

[Giles]

Come on Lando.....

[Bridger]

Driver	Team	Bookmaker Odds	Implied Probability
Andrea Kimi Antonelli	Mercedes	1/4 to 2/9 (Approx. -425)	~78% - 80%
Lewis Hamilton	Ferrari	6/1 to 13/2 (Approx. +700)	~12% - 13%
George Russell	Mercedes	16/1 to 20/1 (Approx. +1700)	~5% - 6%
Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	20/1 to 25/1 (Approx. +2500)	~4% - 5%
Lando Norris	McLaren	20/1 to 25/1 (Approx. +2200)	~4% - 5%

[Bridger]

So, if I had to choose which drivers to have a drink with, it would be Lewis, Max, Nico, Alonso and Bottas. I would happily pass on Lando.

[WhiskeySandwich]

@Bridger This seems legit to me. Also, since the last two races will probably be cancelled, less time to make up ground on Kimi.

I'd be pretty psyched for the kid to win WDC. Crazy to me that Russell can't come close to him this season.

[Bridger]

2025 Mercedes Team Comparison

Driver	Championship Position	Points	Wins	Podium Milestones
George Russell	4th	319	2	Completed a strong season with 2 victories.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli	7th	150	0	Secured his maiden rookie podium in Canada.

@WhiskeySandwich - I agree about George. Such a turnaround since last year. Something in Kimi has just clicked and he has turned into a freakin' race beast.

[WhiskeySandwich]

@Bridger Yeah thats wild. Must just be the car vs their driving style. Kimi seems to be a natural talent and a fast learner. Rooting for him, he's probably going to be one of the giants of F1.

While i still feel like the car has been THE major factor in WDC lately, Kimi just seems to have a gift. Strikes a contrast with Lando of last season, to me at least.

Last year the McLarens were super close. When Max was winning he was miles ahead of his teammate. Kimi is pulling a Max this year.

[Bridger]

@WhiskeySandwich - I agree Kimi could be great. If he wins this year and goes into the next season even more confidence at this age, provided the car remains competitive, he will be a force to be reckoned with